FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|LSU football flops in loss to Florida State after Brian Kelly's brash prediction

• Don't let Brian Kelly off the hook for LSU's season-opening loss to Florida State.
• Kelly,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center in his second season as LSU coach, predicted his Tigers would "beat the heck out of Florida State" in a pregame remark.
• Instead, it was LSU that got whupped in the first game of the season, as Florida State fans rained down war chants in Orlando.

ORLANDO, Fla. — Maybe he felt a little cheeky, and he certainly came off brash.

Brian Kelly’s pregame remark that No. 5 LSU would “beat the heck out of Florida State” is not the type of thing coaches say anymore, not while social media serves as an instant bulletin board.

To beat the heck out of an opponent as talented as No. 8 FSU, a team’s stars must execute. LSU’s didn’t, at least not in pivotal moments of a 45-24 Seminoles victory Sunday night in front of a partisan crowd that spent most of the second half tomahawk chopping.

LSU’s Jayden Daniels ranked among the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites, but the team with the best quarterback won this game.

Jordan Travis exposed LSU’s primary weakness – its secondary – en route to throwing for 342 yards and four touchdowns, while Daniels struggled with reads on some key short-yardage plays.

Three times, LSU failed to convert on fourth downs. Travis delivered one of his biggest plays to convert a critical fourth-and-2 on a go-ahead drive in the third quarter. LSU rushed six, Travis recognized the blitz, and he flipped a quick completion into the flat for a big gain.

The game swung on those four fourth-down plays. LSU went 0-for-3 on fourth downs. FSU was 1-for-1.

Ballgame.

Jayden Daniels stumbles after offseason Heisman hype

The final score obfuscates a game that was nip and tuck throughout more than three quarters.

Missed opportunities haunted LSU, and Travis caught fire after halftime to prove he's the smarter Heisman bet.

The preseason hype train took on shades of purple and gold, and LSU entered with a ranking and the talent to suggest the possibility of a College Football Playoff appearance in Kelly’s second season.

FSU exits as the team with playoff potential.

Forget about the playoff for LSU. That would be a high-wire act of the tallest order, considering LSU’s schedule. Matching last year’s total of 10 wins will be challenge enough.

At halftime, LSU had 293 yards, five red-zone opportunities, but only 17 points after twice failing to convert on fourth-and-1.

Daniels oozes athleticism. He makes so many plays with his legs that you understand why many thought him to be the SEC’s best quarterback. But, if LSU is to salvage this season, it will need more from Daniels.

“We’re not decisive enough whether to give (the ball) or pull it. It’s first-game situations,” Kelly said in a halftime interview on LSU radio.

First game, but an experienced quarterback. Daniels can play better than this. He’ll have to for LSU to repeat as SEC West Division winners. If he doesn’t, then Kelly must consider opportunities for talented backup Garrett Nussmeier.

Don't let Brian Kelly off hook for LSU miscues

LSU’s squandered opportunities didn’t stop on fourth downs. Brian Thomas Jr. dropped what should have been a catch to take the Tigers inside the red zone on an important drive after FSU had taken the lead. Daniels underthrew Thomas a bit, but the ball hit Thomas’ hands. He couldn’t secure it. Daniels threw an interception on the next play, and Seminoles fans rained down war chants as they secured their second win over LSU in as many years.

We shouldn’t let Kelly off the hook, either. Daniels took four straight shotgun snaps from the 1-yard line on LSU’s opening possession. The Tigers failed to gain an inch. On consecutive plays, Daniels didn’t spot an open receiver. The under-center quarterback sneak with a couple of beefy blockers pushing from behind should be a coach’s friend in those scenarios.

On another first-half fourth down, Daniels got mauled in the backfield after pulling a handoff he should have given to Josh Williams. And, maybe, Kelly should have welcomed the chance for three points in those situations, especially with FSU showing the advantage at the line of scrimmage.

Of course, field goals wouldn’t have been enough anyway, because Travis lit up the Tigers. FSU’s ballyhooed transfer Keon Coleman caused nightmares for LSU defensive backs, and Travis worked LSU silly.

In the final minutes, FSU fans began chanting “Overrated! Overrated!”

Hard to argue, after LSU got the heck beat out of it by an opponent that executed better in big moments.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

If you enjoy Blake’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that will allow you access to all of it. Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or access exclusive columns via the SEC Unfiltered newsletter.